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For the NBER project, Globalization in Historical Perspective, I have written
a paper with Marc Weidenmier, Claremont-McKenna College,
Crises in
The
Global Economy from Tulips to Today:
Contagion and Consequences
Abstract
We examine the historical record of the financial crises that have
often accompanied surges of globalization in the past. The
issue of contagion, the spread of financial turbulence from the
crisis center to its trading partners, is confronted with historical
and statistical evidence on the causes and consequences
of well-known crises. Special attention is given to the gold standard period of
1880-1913, which we find useful to divide
into the initial period of deflation, 1880-1896, and the following
period of mild inflation, 1897-1913. We find evidence
of changes in the pattern of "contagion" from core to periphery
countries between the two periods, finding that apparent
contagions can more readily be interpreted as responses
to common shocks. Lessons for the present period can
only be tentative, but the similarities in learning experiences
are striking.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W9147 |